Next 2 weeks don't look pretty.  We can see that the real cold air is close.  It keeps nudging down from Canada, but it can't stay.  ALaska got hit again.  Not a good sign for us.

It's coming, we know it's coming, they say it's coming, but when?  The pattern flip.  Will we be dragged through thaw, after thaw after thaw? Will it be like 2007 when the first snow came on MLK and then we had Valentine's Day, St Patrick's Day and finally Easter storms?  Or will it be like 2001 when we were down to one trail in late January and then it got cold, but the mountain still made no snow.  Or will the Hunter snow machine go all out and show the rest of the East Coast why we are the snow making capital of the world?  Wouldn't it be nice to make lap after, after lap  on Annapurna in the late spring sun?  They cut all the grass on 44, Lower Taylors and under both the Flyer and D lift, it is trimmed so neat.  How could mother nature be so cruel as to deny us the fence line poach on 44 or the new glade between Clairs and Taylors.  Do you think they'll cut it again?

Rest easy we will get what we want.  Most signs point to significant stratospheric warming over the Arctic.  This will displace the cold south.  The rain event this week helps to reinforce the -NAO.  Hopefully, locking us in for a good 6 weeks of winter.  However, if you see it snowing in Whistler and Alaska again.  Then all bets are off.

Enjoy the ride……

The long awaited change in the NAO is coming.  The North Atlantic Oscillation  is moving to a negative phase.  Look for a potential storm around the 13^th.

What a Turkey…..                            

we have for the winter so far.  Strangely, I have 4 days already, 2 lift served.  I  knew back in October we were screwed despite all the "smart" guys saying cold air was right around the corner.  Historically, Snow in October is bad for early season turns.  If you look back at the last 2 big Octobers, 1987 and 2007, the winter started slow and they both turned out "all - right".  So there is hope.

Slow starts, don't mean bad seasons.

You have to remember that in general the weather runs in 6 week cycles, so we'll be nearing  the end of this cycle soon.  Get ready I hear the guns are roaring soon.

Bear Mountain Mogul Challenge 2011

Team Hunter came ready to rock.  From age 10 to 50+ we covered all the categories.  There was also the USSA Dual A meet where we had 4 competitors.   This year they added 2 new categories, Legends and Pro.  This took away some of the ex World Cup guys who always smoked us.  They also had a separate category for under 13 going into day 2.

Day one results were strong

John Flynn 38^th   (5^th place over 50)                 

John Benedek 34^th

Chris Kandel

Dave Adams 10th, 3rd place in the 35 - 49 age category.

Alan Belsky 8th place, 1st place in the 35 - 49 category.

Under 13 age group

Logan Adams 13^th

Sam Kandel 9^th

14 - 20

Zach Benedek   8^th

Shea Belsky 9th

Day 2 Results

Chris lost to dave in the first round

Dave lost a close one in the round of 16

Alan made to the round of 8 where he lost to the eventual winner Bobby Z who graduated high school in 2010.

Logan Adams lost a close on in his round of 8 dual

Sam Kandel finished 4^th.

These 2 will be forces to reckon with on the mogul circuit just like their fathers.  They have great strength and determination against their competition.

Pictures can be found here:

https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/BMMC2011Day2#

https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/BMMC2011Day1#

Spring has sprung and fortunate for us, Hunter Mountain's East and West aspects soften up nicely even if the temperatures don't hit 35 degrees.  I heard that Belleayre and Windham were frozen all day last weekend.  However, Winter has returned and it will be with us at for the next 10 days.  With 6 to perhaps 10" of snow will falling tonight.

Another storm with go south Saturday night and then another storm will hit Hunter Monday.  This last one could be a good one.

Once we past the first of April, nice weather should return.  Hopefully the mountain will stay open till the 10^th.

Anyone check out the new grooming on Clairs?  I think that is amazing.  The trail skis very true to the fall line.  Leave the left to the bumps and groom the right.  It really gives you a steep feeling that was felt by many that slid down it it Sunday.

For this of you who want to read about our trip to Heavenly go this link.  Make sure you read the whole report especially about Robin's out of bounds adventure which is in blue at the bottom.  There is lots of good video and pictures in the links. http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9518&p=59885#p59885

 We also visited Bristol Mountain for the Regional's and Mount Snow for the Championships.  We then hit the Sundown Bump Contest. We had not been back to Hunter for 5 weeks.  A first for me in 25 ski seasons of skiing Hunter.  It was good to be home last Sunday.

Bristol Moguls https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/BristolRegionalChampionships2011#

Mount Snow Moguls https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/EQSBChanpionships2011#

Sundown Moguls     https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/SundownMogulTheJumps#

We also had fun in our backyard on the local kicker the boys built. https://picasaweb.google.com/104145002472724772294/MahopacJump

Only 8 weeks till Mountain Jam.  Hellgate looks deep this year with lots of ice.  Should be some fine skiing that weekend.

While it has not been cold, it will be getting very cold this weekend.

2-4" tomorrow and potential bigger storm next week.

Some warming afterwards, but generally stormy through next month.

The woods are ready:

some videos of good fun:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbS28YOwxV4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci0Msa1l2Wc

Climate Change blurb:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110119/ts_afp/climatewarmingfood_20110119163335

Happy New Year to all my PowderHounds.

Best wishes to Rowdy, you are in all of our hearts.

 First a Climate change update.....

They had to change the name from global warming because that wasn't true anymore.

In 2000 the New York Times wrote:: 'But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.'

Since they made this statement, New York City has averaged 31.7 inches of snow The normal is 27.0 inches in the last 8 years, the average is 34.5 inches including a recording setting 40 plus three years in a row.

Last month was one of the coldest ever in Florida, the UK and Norway.

I snowed in LA and Vegas yesterday.

It was 60 degrees in Hunter on New Year's Day.

 It's all cyclical.

Global temperatures are now nearing normal almost erasing the spike that was hit in 1998.  Yet CO2 levels keep rising.  Why is that?  Ask Al Gore.

Under true global warming there a fewer storms and it is drier.  Storms happen because we have clashes between hot and cold.  It doesn't seem like there are fewer storms to me.

NOW THE WEATHER

Forecasts for a warm January now appear off.  Looks like we had our little break, but the next month or two could be cold and stormy once again.

This weekend's coastal looks to move too far east, but that's what I thought last week.  The middle of next week holds potential for another big storm. 

Stay tuned for more updates as we get closer.

The winter season get's going with a very active pattern.  Cold air begins to show up this Friday and we should be skiing soon.

Cold and stormy weather will continue through December with several chances at storms.  The pattern is looking something like December 1992.  Remember that storm?  Not quite, 84", but a good 4' fell on the mountaintop.

What a summer.  Hot and dry.  How hot?  It was one of the hottest ever on the east coast.  Los Angeles however, had one of the coldest ever.  Today, it was 100 degrees in LA, first time in 7 years, while it was cool and rainy on the East Coast.  Remember last summer, it rained every weekend and rarely went above 90 degrees. This past week it was close to 90 3 days in a row and even at night it was plain steamy.  You may never experience such warm temperatures so late in the year for a long, long time.  It just goes to show, that everything evens out in the end.  The Earth is a tough place to manipulate and the weather is a big rubber band. 

Short Term.

We haven't had much rain for 3 months.  That will all change over the next few days.  Tropical moisture will be streaming up the east coast.  Frost is likely in many areas this weekend and the leaves will be peaking in the mountains, a week or 2 early I might add.  After that, Indian summer will kick in high gear for some splendid October weather.

At some point in November, it will turn real cold and we'll have a good start to the season.  Better than last year, I can guarantee! December will start cold, and we'll have some snow.  Can't say exactly when, but eventually, a big thaw will hit it January.

The second half of the winter will turn cold again and we'll have our chance a late February/ March nor'easter.

Longer term

Things are really cooling down globally.  Sun Spots continue to be historically low.  Volcanic action is up.  Sea temperatures are declining everywhere, the Atlantic being the last.  That is why the Atlantic is seeing the most tropical cyclones this year.

2012 and 2013 look to be very, very cold.  We are going to have the winters just like when we were kids. Oh I forgot, the 70's sucked for snow. Anyway, I wouldn't book your cruise through the Arctic Ocean just yet.  Hold on to your hats it should be fun.

One week ago today, began the week that we'll never forget.  I had been watching the situation for nearly a week before that.  Bumper on Powderhound.org had issued the call.  You would not believe this happened at Hunter Mountain if we were not there.  It has rivaled all the other storms, Dec 92, March 93, Jan 96, April 97, Jan 2001, Feb and March 2007.

You can now read my story or just look at the pictures and video.

http://picasaweb.google.com/huntermt2/HunterMountainBigSnow2010#

http://picasaweb.google.com/huntermt2/ZLIFTDEATHMARCH2272010#

Slowly, the pieces were coning together for a colossal storm.  The mother of all storms;  A triple phaser, where all three branches of the jet stream get together and play for days.

I knew it was going to be good when Robin said she wanted some time with my mistress.  I stayed back Tuesday night to take care of my Shea in case there was school.  He's getting too old to miss a day so we can ski the powder. Wednesday dawned with 20 plus inches of new snow at Hunter, but little at home.  Shea had school and I immersed myself in work trying not to look at the webcams or the videos that were coming off all the I-Phones on the mountaintop. I was smart; I was saving myself for the good stuff to come.

I told Robin not to come home, that schools would be canceled on Thursday. I drove up in a mist.  It misted right to the base of Hunter Wednesday night.  I had to convince my self that it would snow and school would be canceled as I predicted. Fortunately, I was not alone.  I ran into other hopefuls driving up.  I barely slept, awaking at 5 am to see if I had receive the text message signaling schools closure.  There was none.  At 7am I told Robin, the weathers coming, but right now school is on.  It began to snow. She left in a huff and headed back down the mountain only to get the call an hour later that they had now closed school.  Now she was really pissed at my mistress.

I was already slaying the powder.  Shea and I were on second chair. 2 - 3" of creamy snow and it was snowing hard.  I hit Crossover right side and it was way deep.  Then we opened the West side and it was now snowing really hard. Robin made it back and we kept up the fun.  We were now skiing under the lifts and hitting our old lines in the woods.  The last run of the day right under the Quad and then D lift.

And it continued to snow.  Friday dawned with 20" more and I was on first chair again. Cliff Racers as always and then 42 to Ike.   We were pigs looking for another fresh line and we found them.  People were going crazy, launching off everything. Robin I were one of the first on Clairs, then Taylors.  But the line was too crazy and spent the rest of the day in the woods of K 27.  At 3:20 we hit 44 Woods which was unbelievable.  We got to the top and they let us go again.  44 Woods from even higher.  Robin of course had to take it right to Y lift and find the stream.

We were spent, drained and hurting.  But mother nature wasn't done yet.  It would keep snowing. Word got out.  The masses were getting ready to descend on Hunter, but there was nowhere to put them or the snow.  Saturday morning dawned with 6 or 8" more snow, but no power.  Panic ensued.  Belleayre, Windham, Plattekill?  They all are open. Then Central Hudson came through.  We headed out into the maelstrom.  The line was big, but not huge.  But only 2 chairs were open.  They had to dig the others out. Robin dropped the fence on the Cliff (see the video)

Robin took a shovel and started to dig out D lift.  Then Russ Colton joined her and I joined him, just like old friends.  We built the corral and waited for the start.  Real managers showed up and spoiled the fun, so we fell back in line.  By now, F was open and we all waited for Z lift. 

We got to the top and saw that it had just opened.  The girls took a break and  I zoomed down to the top of Clairs, but I paused and looked at the line.  Forget about it, there is plenty of powder on the front side and I hiked up to the Belt. 

I got text from Shea.  "Don't ski the west side". Then I saw the 2 lift mechanics zooming up the belt.  I knew there was trouble.  Everyone had to walk back from the West Side.  No buses were available. I called Robin.  She said she would continue to ski the pow and I should take care of Shea.  I shoveled the truck out, found someone to hold my spot and I drove around and shoved 20 kids in the pickup truck.  I was scared I would be mobbed. The pictures say it all:

http://picasaweb.google.com/huntermt2/ZLIFTDEATHMARCH2272010#

I heard that Lift ops did not want to run everyone out of there, but management said they must.  Our chief snowmaker arrived with a can of gas to keep Z lift running and promptly poured it on the manifold causing a fire.  No more Z lift start walking.

I needed the rest anyway.  I ate 2 power bars and headed back out.  Lines were a little more manageable now. I was now skiing over and behind every fence on the hill. I hit lines that I cut 10 years ago.  I never thought we'd get in the Annex again because of the logging, but now it's unbelievable. I showed the next generation some of my private lines and I swore them to secrecy. I brought friends to my private lines and they thanked me for taking them to Utah.  I was dropping cliffs with the 15 year olds, taking 50 year olds way into the woods and asking them why you don't own a pair of fat skis.  Everyone should have a pair of fat skis.  They never go bad, you'll have them forever.

Sunday morning, I lay in bed once again at 6am wondering if the body would make it up.  My lower back was toast, but the Vitamin I was down in the kitchen.  I looked out and it was still snowing lightly.  All the lifts were ready now and the powder was still deep.  I was out for first chair again.  We skied right down the face of Hunter Mountain. 

Heuga to Heuga

Heuga to Drop Off

Drop Off to the Belt

The Belt to the Hotel

Some turns were hip deep. We did it again and again and then we went over to some other secret lines on Hunter One.  Everyone talks about the Ravine, but who needs to hike.

My wife was amazing, riding the elliptical of powder over and over again.  Her new ACL of only 10 months was screaming to stop, but she couldn't help herself.  She was determined just like me to take every line she could.  She hucked and jumped and squeezed through trees.  Finally, at 2pm Sunday, she said no more.  It was okay, she had skied a whole day more.

They kept the lifts open until 4:30 PM and I crawled home.  It was over.  It was time to go make the doughnuts again.  We had lived in Lake Tahoe for 5 days.  We have one more weekend to seek out the goods in the back country before some warm air comes in.  But don't worry, I hear Bumper is coking up some late season fun.

 Storm totals from the NWS:

Greene County (NY)
Hunter, NY 72.5

The Ski center @ Hunter 84.5
E. Windham (Tower) 90"/Village 72"
E. Jewett 84"
Tannersville 60"

Plattekill 98" 

69 and 70 were great years around these parts, Mets, Jets, Knicks and lot's of snow.  I remember the 10 foot drift in my parents driveway.  It was the year they thought I got plowed under.

  THE storm of the winter so far for many areas further north and amounts of 3-5 feet by Saturday may be common above 1500 feet form the Catskills northeast into western New England and then back west. 

Let's see what shakes.  What day do we take off?

Axis of heaviest snows is coming closer, but still not close enough for me.  Look for some nortward adjustments.

Next storm is way south, like Atlanta.  After that, more storms and cold. Through the beginning of March.

Major storm to bear down on NYC are this Wednesday.  1 - 2 feet are possible with local amounts to 30" again.  (Can I talk about global warming again?)

Axis of storm runs froms Northeast PA to Cape Cod.  Hunter is in a great spot to get at least  6-12". 

Look for another update Monday.

WHICH WAY DOES IT GO?

I said 5 months ago that we would get big storm on January 25^th.  Too bad it was 5" of rain. 

We have another nor'easter bearing down on us, but the line between a lot of snow and no snow is sharp.  There is still some potential for this thing to come further north so stay tuned. The future is bright with a train of low pressure systems across the Pacific.  One of them will get us.  It's going to be a fun ride into spring.

A WASTE OF A GOOD PATERN

Other than the annual Christmas hiccup, we have had perfect cold weather since December 5, 2009.  Unfortunately we have missed out on the synoptic snows that might have provided us a great season.  There is a good base in the woods and the continued cold weather has kept the trails intact.  We actually could use a good old rain storm, so they'll turn the guns on again.  Repeated grooming of Purna and Clairs do not strike my fancy. 

A recent foray into the Ravine revealed incredible damage to the canopy around 3500' elevation.  I won't be going back there soon.

It has been cold across the nation and I won't go into any anti global warming issues, but these facts are true according to NOAA.

December was the 14^th coldest ever for the nation

Houston has set records for the earliest snow 2 years in a row.

Record was set in Iowa at 37 below.

Florida is decimated by a top 3 cold spell ever.

Dallas had snow 3 times in December, never happened before.

Burlington, VT set an all time record snowfall last week at 33" for one storm.

Calgary Canada set records for cold at almost 40 below zero.

Europe is getting slammed with record snow and cold.

China is getting slammed with record cold and snow

What does our future hold?

Storm this weekend goes mostly south followed by a 7 - 10 day warm up. No major thaw, but a relaxation of the cold. February and March bring the cold back.  Storm track may stay south as well.  We'll see how it plays out.

HERE WE GO AGAIN (NOT ABOUT SKIING)

The leaders of the world are gathering in Denmark this week to talk about global warming.  It is unconceivable to me the amount of money being spent on this.  The cap and trade tax plan will stifle this countrie's business for years to come.  The environmental cost to produce hybrid batteries is astounding.

Let me be clear, I am an ardent environmentalist, but the focus should be on pollution of our oceans and soils. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is part of the air just like H2O which also traps heat.  CO2 is a miniscule part of our atmosphere.  The world has been warmer and it has been colder, long before you and I were around.  Has anyone noticed that the sun has been asleep?  The solar minimum is below levels rarely seen.  How do you think that affects our weather?

What about rising seas?  Is there one island that has gone under water yet?  Wasn't that supposed to happen a long time ago?

What about the fudging of the data at the UK climate institute because temperatures were not continuing to go higher?

Some people complain about ski areas using our tax dollars to make snow.  I'd rather it go there where I can use it, than go to combat global warming.  At least I might get to use the snow.

You see all this recent warming and the coming cool down are part of a cycle.  The major cycle in the Pacific Ocean, the largest heat sink in the world. The PDO.  Check it out online. The PDO drives our climate, plus volcanoes.  One volcano can wipe any reduction in "greenhouse" gases.

What is killing our planet; air pollution from China (not CO2), fertilizer runoff, chemicals in our water supplies, invasive species, clear cutting, and mountain top mining?  These are the problems that should be tackled.  Money should be spent to help oil, gas and coal companies make their production cleaner and more efficient.  I am all for increasing car fuel efficiency, but not because of a battery that use more energy to make than it ever saves.

2 years in a row Houston has set records for the earliest snow ever and Hunter wasn't open for Thanksgiving for the first time ever.  You see it all evens out.  This winter will turn out great.  We have many chances at storms this year and I'll be looking out for them.

Enough of this however, in 20 years we'll see if I am right.

READ THIS:

http://sppiblog.org/news/climate-science-qa-has-40-of-all-arctic-ice-melted

Not much time tonight.

Sorry to say this is my fault as I tried to push the start of winter beyond December 5^th.  Unfortunately, I never expected it to not have any snow at all and now it looks like first weekend of the season will be 12/5.  I don't remember not skiing at all on Thanksgiving.

First winter storm of the season will occur Thursday thru Saturday.  Good possibility of 6" or more.

Second storm next Tuesday and then the fun really begins s we step down into a very stormy (snowy) pattern. Notice I don't say cold.  We are still at risk of the cold being temporary, but we're moving in the right direction.

Happy Holiday, we are thankful for all we have no matter what the weather.

Winter Forecast 2009/ 2010

I have been holding off on this forecast because there are many interesting factors that could affect our weather this winter.  We have all seen the terms historic, cold and snowy, below normal bantered about.

I usually like to see what can go wrong and work from there.

1. El Nino was forecasted to be mild to moderate, peaking in early November.  When this pattern occurs the "pineapple express" stays suppressed and the United States is not flooded with warm Pacific air. Intrusions of Arctic air are plentiful and the storm track stays south.  Storms tend to stay south of us and keep us on the cold and snowy side. 

Unfortunately, El Nino seems to be bordering on strong.  The lingering effects of this event could lead to extended early season warmth.

2. Storm track.  The storm track has been active, and we were on the cold side for most of the summer, but recent events have gone north of us putting the Catskills on the warm side.

3. Moisture.  Plenty of moisture seems to be available for storms

4. Siberia.  Most of our cold air is generated in Siberia.  Siberia is experiencing the least snow in recent memory.

5. Arctic Sea Ice is thicker and larger coverage than years past.

6. PDO.  We are in a -PDO which is great for cold air, especially in the Rockies and Northern Plains.

7. We are due.  It's been a while since we spent more than one weekend in the trees.

Bottom line.  Looks like a slow start and good to great finish.  Possible major storm at the end of January.

Potential exists for a "refreshing" snow this Friday into the weekend.  Killington has started to make snow and they could be open within days.

Good luckwith CPR Jane, I'll be making turns or doing the Hora with Zak Benedek.

We don't need to rehash the summer weather.  Rainy June, cold July, more of the same in August save for a week of warm weather.  This week is cool and some record lows have or will occur.

September looks to be on the warmish side.  Signs continue to point to a good winter.  If it stays warm through September, all the better.

Looks like a significant snowstorm could impact us the last week of January.